The Arizona Cardinals are making smart roster moves
Deciding where to spend the cap space
Though college scouting and solid drafting are probably the most important aspects of building a roster in today’s NFL, free agency is where the most contentious – and often unpopular – decisions must be made. This is because free agency is where a team must make difficult decisions about which players they will pay like stars, and which they will let walk. The conundrum is even more acute for a talent-laden club like the Cardinals.
While making these decisions, there are a number of things a team will consider. The player’s talent is an obvious consideration in this process. Teams also attempt to project a player’s future production. This is where age comes into the equation – the future production for a player entering his prime projects better than that of an aging player.
The third variable is an intersection of positional importance and positional scarcity. In other words, how vital is the position to a team’s success, and how difficult is it to replace a player at the position? This intersection has some nuance to it.
The starting quarterback is widely viewed as the most important player on any team, and the inability to find a franchise quarterback has ended the tenure of many a coach and GM. Yet, if we consider Pro Football focus’ position grades, there are fewer top tight ends than there are quarterbacks. According to PFF’s 2016 player grades, 17 quarterbacks were rated as “above average” or better, while only nine tight ends were rated as “above average” or better.
Does this mean that tight ends are more valuable than quarterbacks? Of course not. While a tight end has an important role to play, that role is not nearly as vital to a team’s success as that of a quarterback.
A team can contend with an average, or even below average tight end. Contending with an average or below-average quarterback typically only happens when a team has an all-time-great defense (see: 2000 Baltimore Ravens).
Ultimately, positional importance/scarcity balances elements of both a position’s importance to winning, and how difficult it is to find talented players at the position. Historically, this has resulted in a short list of “cornerstone” positions in the NFL, which are both vital and hard to replace.
Typically this list includes quarterback, left tackle, pass rusher, and shut-down cornerback. There are other positions that are important to fielding a competitive team, such as wide receiver, running back, safety, and other offensive linemen, but quality players at those positions are typically easier to find.
The question is, how do the Cardinals’ moves measure up to these criteria? Some of the moves, like re-signing A.Q. Shipley and Andre Ellington, are easy to understand. These are quality veterans who signed modest deals. There are, however, some bigger moves – including both players the Cardinals signed and players they let walk – that merit further discussion.