In todays age of analytic-driven football, the numbers are everywhere.
Some mean nothing, and some mean everything. Improving Kyler Murray’s advanced stats is the key to the Arizona Cardinals success in 2021. With head coach Kliff Kingsbury openly a big fan of analytics, the plan to improve these numbers has already begun in free agency. With help from Pro Football Reference, we’ll see what Murray averaged in the following:
- Pocket Time (PKT)
- Throwaways (THW)
- Bad throws (BAD) and passing yards after contact (pYAC)
Now the old saying goes that “numbers never lie”, however remember that all of these numbers can be taken with a grain of salt. An explanation of how PFR defines their advanced stats can be found here. The numbers may not lie, but the film can always change that number.
Getting back to the topic of Murray, the first half of the season was a clinic on how Kingsbury’s air raid offense was going to work. The engine may have worked too hard too early, and the drop in stats and wins hit after the bye week. Arizona significantly lacked offense over the final 7 games. All four of these categories can be improved upon after Murray’s first Pro Bowl nod. Let’s get into the first of the four stats we’ll cover.
Pocket Time (PKT)
First up for improving Kyler Murray’s advanced stats is pocket time (PKT). This is how much time Murray has from snap to throwing off the ball, or the pocket collapses. Murray averaged 2.4 seconds in the pocket last year, which ended up being tied for 16th in the league. He was also sacked 27 times in 2020. Murray shared the same PKT time as Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford.
It’s weird to see Brady down here with Murray, as he took the Buccaneers to the Super Bowl title this past year. Pressure was always seemingly coming from the interior of the offensive line. Mason Cole was especially frustrating, and the Cardinals sent him off to Minnesota as a result. Rodney Hudson will now lead the offensive line. Hudson has only allowed 10 sacks in 10 years.
This upgrade is going from last row economy to first class-priority boarding. Brian Winters is another classy addition to the guard position, and it looks like the men inside the 3 techniques will be able to hold it down.
Another improvement that can help Murray is the establishment of a running game. A true lead back not named Chase Edmonds will get this done. If the Cardinals can get a RB at the right spot in the draft, then it will only amplify Murray’s effectiveness in play action. Murray was 3rd in scrambles last year with 51, so this affects the PKT time as well.
Throwaways (THW)
Almost an extension of PKT, the offensive line forced Murray to scramble often last year. Reducing throwaways is next on the list of improving Kyler Murray’s stats. As agile as he can be, Murray would often end up deep behind the line of scrimmage (LoS) and have to chuck the ball to avoid intentional grounding penalties.
Murray was once again 3rd in this category, coming in with 25 THW last year. On some plays it looked like he just gave up instead of trying to make a play, a quality that is both admirable and annoying at the same time.
I’ve already mentioned how the offensive line can be better this year. Murray could improve this by not bailing on the pocket too early, trusting his linemen, and by tucking and running like he did all year. Murray was second behind Lamar Jackson in rushing yards off of RPO’s.
With more protection and healthier set of legs, he should be able to maneuver himself forward for positive yards, no matter how small of a gain it may be.
Signing A.J. Green to the roster will also open up more room for completions. Green has averaged 14.5 yards per catch over his 10 year career, and will look to keep that average as high as possible. Of course if Larry Fitzgerald does actually return, then Murray will need to target him way more often, as Fitzgerald’s hands are the best in NFL history.
Bad throws (BAD) and passing yards after contact (pYAC)
Now here is the most interesting one of the bunch that will be a factor of improving Kyler Murray’s advanced stats. Bad throws, those of which aren’t catchable with a realistic effort.
Murray logged 88 of them last year, placing him 10th in the league. You can see that there are a lot of successful quarterbacks who’s BAD number is relatively high. Another case where numbers don’t always correlate.
I would assume that Murray’s number on this was influenced by the freakish ability of DeAndre Hopkins. Murray is still learning and mastering the offense, and a lot of times deep passes would be overthrown.
While it’s great to avoid interceptions, it’s another thing to go 3-and-out and put the defense out there more than they need to be. Adding a receiver who can accumulate a high amount of yards after the catch (hence the pYAC) would do wonders for this air raid offense. When route trees are so short, this is just icing on the cake.
Finally, there were times where Murray had thrown the ball behind the receiver, forcing him to make and adjustment and come back to the ball. I believe Dan Arnold had a lot of this late in the season. This is more of a technique issue for Murray, which can actually be worked on pretty easily.
Throwing receivers open is a great skill to have, especially with Hopkins running around. But being able to change a 7 yard slant to a big gain or a house call is what changes games. If there’s improvement here, there’s almost no stopping this offense- unless it’s a false start.
As we head into year 3, this is usually the year quarterbacks earn their second contract. Kingsbury’s mission will be improving Kyler Murray’s advanced stats and also making the correct game time decisions to help put this team into the playoffs.