The Arizona Cardinals face their first AFC opponent this week in the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that has struggled throughout the first month of the season. Regardless of how badly the Bengals have played so far in 2023, they’re a team you can’t write off thanks to their starpower on both sides of the football.
But if they keep struggling, then the Redbirds have a chance to win this game handedly. Below, I’ve outlined three reasons why the Cards will walk away from State Farm Stadium with the W. But I’m also sharing two reasons why that won’t be the case and that the Bengals will be flying back to Ohio after handing Arizona the L.
3 reasons Arizona Cardinals could win this Sunday, but 2 reasons why they won’t
Why they will win
1 - Cardinals running game is light years ahead of Bengals rushing defense
I projected running back James Conner to enjoy a huge game on the ground this week in my bold predictions piece. One reason is thanks to the fact Conner has been one of the league’s best backs all season, ranking fourth among 51 qualified running backs with a PFF Grade of 82.2.
With the Bengals allowing 628 rushing yards, they’re the second-worst in the category for all teams who have played in four games. The Cardinals have a perfect recipe for success unless the Bengals somehow figure out how to stop the run sometime in the next day-and-a-half.
2 - Cardinals have more than just home field advantage
Despite their ultimate ill-fated run at State Farm Stadium between 2021 and 2022, the Arizona Cardinals have turned things around across their first two games in the new era. In the week following a loss to the New York Giants in which they allowed Big Blue to rally from a 21-point deficit, the Cards beat the Dallas Cowboys.
Therefore, it’s safe to say that, for now, the Cards have an advantage when they play at State Farm Stadium. But the Bengals, like the Giants, must adjust their respective body clocks quickly, and that too could play into the Cardinals hands.
3 - Cardinals EDGE rushers could make life tough for Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow isn’t known for his scrambling, and with an injured calf, his running ability could be shut down entirely as he tries to compensate. So far through four games, the Arizona Cardinals have a pass rush that has shown they can get to the quarterback often.
Unfortunately, they don’t blitz a lot, but when they do, the Redbirds often find themselves chasing quarterbacks. They have blitzed only 17.9% of the time per dropback, which is the fifth-lowest in the NFL, and this gives the illusion of a non-existent pass rush. But when you look at sack totals, they’re tied for 11th in the league with 12 sacks.
In that same bold predictions article linked in the previous slide, I pointed out that the Cards need to rush Burrow more often. Let Dennis Gardeck run rampant, and even when they’re not rushing the passer, line him up at EDGE. The more Gardeck is in the box at his natural position, it will force the Bengals to assume he’s coming on every play.
Why they won’t win
1 - Inconsistency on offense can once again plague the Cardinals
The common denominator with the Arizona Cardinals struggles all season has been their sheer inconsistency on offense. Last week, they scored 10 points in the first half, and they amassed just six in the second. Against Dallas the week before, it was seven points, and eight points in Week 2. Go back to Week 1, and the Cards scored just three in the second half.
Therefore, they’ve totaled 24 points in the second half through the first four games of the season, averaging to six per game. If the Redbirds score 17 points in the first two quarters, or 21, we know by now that the game isn’t even close to being over, even if they shut out the Bengals in the first two quarters.
Sooner than later, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing will figure it out, so maybe this is the week. Thanks to the Bengals defense’s struggles, it gives the Cards a manageable opponent to perhaps break through this second-half slump.
2 - Cardinals corners have noticeably struggled
Thank goodness cornerback Garrett Williams is at least practicing, because they will need him if cornerbacks Marco Wilson and Kei’Trel Clark continue to struggle. Wilson and Clark rank 88th and 90th, respectively out of 107 corners on PFF, making them arguably the league’s worst duo.
And while Clark’s grade of 50.5 is lower than Wilson’s (50.7), the latter is more likely to get relegated to backup status once Williams is ready. Wilson is a product of the old Steve Keim regime while Ossenfort brought in Clark, who is at least serviceable in run defense with a 64.1 grade coming into Week 5.
Unfortunately, Williams isn’t playing this week, as the injury report lists him as out, so Wilson and Clark must lead the charge vs. Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals pass-catchers. If the Cards corners struggle again, then it will be a long outing for the Cardinals if Burrow finds a way to evade Gardeck and Company.
(Statistics and grades provided by Pro-Football-Reference and PFF [subscription[