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Arizona Cardinals: Why Tony Jefferson won’t be back with the Cardinals

By Joseph Comeau

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Don’t expect free agent safety Tony Jefferson to be back with the Cardinals in 2017.

Arizona Cardinals safety Tony Jefferson had a career year in 2016. It came at a good time – for him. Jefferson is a free agent, and though the Cardinals would like to have him back, reports suggest Jefferson is planning to test free agency.

The reports of Jefferson’s intent originated from tweets by Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, and CBS Sports writer Jason La Canfora. According to Miller’s sources, Jefferson is expected to command a salary north of $7 million per season, with La Canfora indicating that a Jefferson return to Arizona is exceedingly unlikely.

Arizona Cardinals General Manager Steve Keim has demonstrated a willingness and ability to sign his young stars before they reach free agency. Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu stand out as examples of this, with Chandler Jones likely to join the list – or be designated with the franchise tag until a long-term contract can be reached.

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So why is Tony Jefferson about to hit free agency and likely leave the nest?

The short answer is that he is more easily replaced than the other young star on the roster. The more detailed answer, however, has to do with positional scarcity, coaching, and scheme.

Safety is not a premium position in the NFL. That list includes positions like quarterback, pass rusher, left tackle, and lock-down cornerback – but not safety. This fact is well illustrated by comparing Pro Football Focus’ 2016 player grades for cornerbacks and safeties.

According to PFF, three safeties earned “elite” grades, 10 earned “high quality” grades – including Jefferson and teammate D.J. Swearinger – while 24 earned “above average” grades. This equates to a total of 37 NFL safeties who received “above average” grades or better.

Cornerback, on the other hand, had five players with “elite” grades, six with “high quality” grades, and 17 with “above average” grades, for a total of 28 with “above average” grades or better. While there were more elite cornerbacks than safeties, the numbers suggest that it is easier to find a high quality or above safety, than it is to find a cornerback of the same caliber.

This lack of scarcity is reflected in how the position is typically treated in the draft. Though they are occasionally drafted in the first round, quality safeties are often found in the later rounds. The fact that Jefferson was, himself, an undrafted rookie is telling.

Under Coach Bruce Arians, the Cardinals seem to have the Midas touch, when it comes to finding quality safeties.

In addition to positional scarcity, coaching and scheme also come into play. Under Coach Bruce Arians, the Cardinals seem to have the Midas touch, when it comes to finding quality safeties.

Before leaving for the Tennessee Titans, Rashad Johnson was a productive member of the Cardinals secondary. After his departure, Jefferson stepped in and excelled. Reclamation project D.J. Swearinger has revived his career in the desert. Even Harlan Miller – a rookie cornerback who had never played the position before – performed well at safety for the Cardinals.

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This is not to take anything away from Jefferson. He has worked diligently to become one of the better safeties in the NFL. But the Cardinals likely believe that they can find a reasonable facsimile for far less than $7 million a year – and they are probably right. Moreover, in a salary cap league, every dollar saved on one position is a dollar that can be spent to upgrade another.

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