Arizona Cardinals General Manager Steve Keim has a history of drafting small school prospects.
Arizona Cardinals General Manager Steve Keim has a propensity for selecting draft prospects from unheralded programs. These players – often termed “small school prospects” are typically available on day three of the NFL draft. Players who are selected in these mid-to-late rounds of the draft typically find themselves in that position because their NFL potential is accompanied by notable question marks. These caveats can include injury history, off-the-field concerns, disappointing production, limited playing experience, lack of prototypical measurables, and lack of experience playing against top competition.
Small school prospects will often carry multiple question marks, though level of competition is the most ubiquitous concern. In many cases, small school prospects amass inflated statistics by dominating lackluster competition. Some of these prospects, however, possess legitimate NFL attributes and skills. Ultimately, these players are downgraded due to the difficulty associated with discerning how their play will translate against steeper competition.
If you’re going to take a gamble…
There is a wisdom to Keim’s affinity for small school players. If day three prospects involve an escalated level of risk, then a GM must decide which risks he is willing to abide. Drafting players with injury and character concerns involves a certain “time bomb” element. Such players typically have undeniable talent, but their NFL careers are often an injury or drug tests away from ending.
If you can find a small school product who lacks these sorts of durability or character issues, the primary thing that needs to be determined is whether they are truly an NFL talent. While this may be easier said than done, it is a much less volatile proposition than dealing with character or injury concerns. In other words, teams can focus upon actual talent evaluation, rather than trying to predict how the player’s health or character will hold up.
The Cardinals’ brass trust their scouting staff and evaluation process, and Steve Keim is widely viewed as an excellent talent evaluator. With this in mind, it makes sense that the Cardinals would be drawn to small school prospects – it plays to their strengths.
Keim’s hits and misses with small school prospects.
If David Johnson’s career continues on it’s current trajectory, he will be the shining exemplar of Keim’s small school strategy. Wide receivers John Brown and J.J. Nelson, and defensive lineman Rodney Gunter also stand out as small school products who have proven to be NFL caliber players. Defensive back Harlan Miller may soon join this list. Moreover, while Earl Watford never managed to grab hold of a starting role in Arizona, he showed enough that the Jacksonville Jaguars were willing to sign him to a two year, $5 million contract.
No draft strategy is fool-proof, and a few misses can be found among Keim’s small school selections. Some of these misses include tight end D.C. Jefferson, wide receiver Walt Powell, and safety Marqui Christian. It is worth noting, however, that Powell and Christian are both still in the league – just not with the Cardinals. In other words, one could argue that Keim successfully identified Powell and Christian as NFL players, though they could not stick with the Cardinals.
Next: Arizona Cardinals: Positions to address in the 2017 draft
As one would expect, the later a player is selected, the greater the likelihood that player will be a bust – and day three selections have a bust rate ranging from about 50 percent in the fourth round, to about 80 percent in the seventh round. Within this context, Keim’s small school strategy appears to be a success.