Arch Manning has struggled relative to sky-high expectations entering his senior season at Texas. In the offseason, the Arizona Cardinals were frequently projected to take Manning as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Manning's draft stock has taken a drastic hit since, with Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker emerging as the top quarterback prospect this season.
However, given Manning's upside and the value at quarterback, he's still likely a first-round selection. And with the 3-5 Cardinals off to a better start than many expected, Manning suddenly becomes in play as a potential pick in their range yet again.
Cardinals draft Arch Manning No. 12 overall in Fox Sports mock
Rob Rang of Fox Sports released a mock draft on Thursday that has the Cardinals taking Manning with the No. 12 overall selection. That may be steep for some given Manning's struggles at Texas, but it could still be a worthwhile first-round gamble for a QB-needy team like the Cardinals.
Rang mentions not only Arizona's need for a long-term quarterback after the shakeup from Jacoby Brissett to Gardner Minshew II, but also that Manning would be a good fit in Mike LaFleur's system, helping unlock some of the potential that made him such a top prospect.
"The Cardinals' inspirational comeback over the Cowboys last week completely shook up their QB room, as Jacoby Brissett has since been traded, backup Gardner Minshew is now QB1, and rookie Carson Beck is the backup. This is all temporary, however. Arizona will assuredly be in the market for a new starter next year, and Mike LaFleur is exactly the type of QB-friendly head coach needed to unlock Arch Manning's great potential. "
Rang's NFL player comparison for Manning is Justin Herbert. The immediate reaction is that it's a red flag, since the Los Angeles Chargers are still winless at 0-7.
But then you also have to consider how much upside and raw talent Herbert has, and how much of his struggles have been due to Los Angeles' inability to put him in the right position to succeed. He's even produced results in the NFL, including a 5,014-yard passing and 38-touchdown season in 2021.
The Cardinals may face a similar challenge if Manning is, in fact, the quarterback they take a chance on in the first round. There's plenty of other potential options in this range, with Fox Sports' mock having six quarterbacks taken in the first round alone.
Assuming Mestemaker is playing himself out of the Cardinals' draft range, that would leave Manning, Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss), CJ Carr (Notre Dame), Dante Moore (Oregon), and Darian Mensah (Miami).
Arch Manning still has franchise-altering upside the Cardinals can't ignore
Chambliss and Carr were projected to go around Manning, but Chambliss is already 24, while Carr lacks elite traits as a prospect at the next level. Arizona needs to hit on this pick and find a franchise quarterback to finally propel itself in the NFC West and compete with contenders like the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Chambliss feels too close to the Kyler Murray experience for my liking, while Carr's high floor/low ceiling doesn't inspire confidence that the Cardinals will be competing anytime soon.
Manning may be the biggest risk of any of these quarterbacks in the first round, except perhaps Moore, given his season-ending injury and up-and-down time at Oregon. But the Cardinals need to take these types of risks to eventually contend. If Manning isn't the answer, they'd at least likely know sooner rather than later and continue the search.
We're really not too far removed from him being viewed as one of the top prospects in this draft class. And with the Cardinals continuing to pull off upsets this season, Manning's struggles could actually prove to be a blessing in disguise. Otherwise, they never would've been in this position to take someone with such a high ceiling for what is approaching a pick in the middle of the first round.
Not to say Manning is a guaranteed hit, but the high-risk, high-reward nature of this pick is exactly the type of quarterback prospect they need to target. Arizona won't have the luxury of a surefire prospect like Mestemaker. Whoever they draft comes with flaws, so they might as well bet on the raw talent and upside of Manning to potentially change the trajectory of this franchise.
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