The Arizona Cardinals and their presumed starter, Jacoby Brissett, are at an impasse. Brissett has been a steady starting option for the better part of a decade now. But he’s always seen as the best backup who you immediately want to upgrade. It has led to a string of backup deals.Â
- 2021 - 1 year/$5 million
- 2022 - 1 year/$4.65 million
- 2023 - 1 year/$8 million
- 2024 - 1 year/$8 million
- 2025 - 2 years/$12.5 million
The most he has ever made in a single year was $14.9 million in 2019. Now, coming off of a season where he set career highs in passing yards (3,366) and touchdowns (23) while operating last year’s version of the Cardinals offense well enough to send former face of the franchise Kyler Murray packing, he’s rightfully trying to cash in for at least one year at starting money.
And he has a strong argument for holding out in hopes of a re-negotiated deal. Last year he made $9,060,000 in cash after earning both of his playtime bonuses. But even if he were to earn both of those incentives this year, at best he can earn $7,440,000. He’s in a perfect position to request and expect more money this year.
Arizona should want Brissett to start this season as they develop their offensive system and identity. He can help the offensive core develop to the best of their abilities while simultaneously mentoring rookie Carson Beck. Then next year, after his current deal expires, the Cardinals can turn to Beck with a unit that is ready to build him up and support him.
And in no way should they think Gardner Minshew is advantageous as their starter.
But how much is fair market value for a bridge starter in the last year of his deal?
Jacoby Brissett's Value
There are a wide range of comps for Brissett’s 2025 season. But the average of those comps creates a compelling case for actual value. And that average points to a recent valuation that matches his archetype.
Player | Dropbacks | Com % | Yards | Yds/att | BTT | TWP | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacoby Brissett (2025) | 550 | 65.0% | 3,366 | 6.9 | 17 | 16 | 23 | 8 |
Teddy Bridgewater (2021) | 472 | 66.9% | 3,052 | 7.2 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 7 |
Baker Mayfield (2023) | 639 | 64.3% | 4,045 | 7.1 | 25 | 24 | 28 | 10 |
Gardner Minshew (2023) | 546 | 62.2% | 3,305 | 6.7 | 14 | 22 | 15 | 9 |
Bridgewater’s deal in 2022 had an APY of $6.5 million (3.12% of the salary cap). Mayfield’s was for $33.33 million in 2024 (13.05% of the cap). And Minshew’s 2024 contract was for $12.5 million per year (4.89% of the cap).
The cap-adjusted average of those three presents a $21.41 million APY. That would be right around the average of Justin Fields’ 2025 contract for $20 million per year and Malik Willis’ recent deal with the Dolphins for $22.5 million per year. Both of those quarterbacks were paid as starters who might bust and turn into high-level backups. That’s precisely what Brissett is.
But while this is a good representation of Brissett from a value and archetype profile, if the Cardinals are trying to just adjust his current pay in lieu of an extension, there is a practical problem with just giving him a $16 million raise. It’s the amount of the raise itself. Without an actual extension, the precedent for a raise of this proportion is rare.
Last year pass rusher Trey Hendrickson was able to successfully convince the Bengals to give him a $13 million raise. It was an 81% increase over the $16 million salary he was set to earn that season. That same offseason, defensive tackle Cam Heyward was only able to get the Steelers to offer him $3.2 million in performance bonuses that he had to earn.Â
It’s a tough thing to get teams to just give you more money without them getting anything back. With an extension the team gets additional control over the player. With a raise they don’t. Hendrickson got his raise because at the time he was one of the five best pass rushers in the league and held a ton of leverage over a team that was operating in win-now mode. Brissett doesn’t have that luxury. The Cardinals are going to be bad this year and are operating on a multi-year rebuild. While he may be what’s best for them, he isn’t necessary.
There are two paths forward if the sides want to come together before training camp starts. Either a) Brissett accepts a considerably smaller raise. Following the Hendrickson precedent of an 80-90% increase could be a $10 million base while keeping his playtime bonuses that could push his potential earnings up to $12 million. The base would be close to $1 million more than he earned last year after the bonuses.
Or alternatively, they could offer him an actual extension at his market value. One year, $21.56 million would make the total deal two years and $27 million. With even cash flows, Brissett would see $13.5 million in cash this year - an $8,060,000 raise. That $13.5 million would be guaranteed. The Cardinals would retain his rights for 2027 at another $13.5 million - all not guaranteed - on what is effectively a team option.
Either way, it will be interesting to see if Arizona plays hardball with their best signal-caller.
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