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Deciphering Kliff Kingsbury’s post timeout success rate

By Aarron Van Buren

September 13, 2020; Santa Clara, California, USA; Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury (left) signals for a timeout during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
September 13, 2020; Santa Clara, California, USA; Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury (left) signals for a timeout during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dec 20, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury reacts against the Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 20, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury reacts against the Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Looking back on the Arizona Cardinals season, I personally thought the team struggled coming out of timeouts and having effective plays. Sometimes quarterback Kyler Murray wouldn’t notice the play clock, and other times the offense just wasn’t on the same page coming out of a timeout. Kliff KIngsbury’s PTSR (post-timeout success rate) is what I wanted to figure out for myself.

This article comes with inspiration from Kevin Fishbain of TheAthletic, who did such a recap for the Chicago Bears (paywall). I got the idea while driving on a local radio station (WSCR 670 The Score) last month and I wanted to take a look for myself at how this applied to big red.

The purpose of this research is to find how effective the plays that were called coming out of the timeouts called while the offense was on the field actually were. There’ll be three results a play can receive:

  1. Positive (3+ yards). This is based on if you average 3 yards per play, you’ll end up with a 4th and short.
  2. Neutral (0-2 yards). This could mean the play wasn’t effective, incompletion, or the defense just had a great play on the ball.
  3. Negative (-1 to X yards). Simply a loss on the play, whether the team got sacked, tackled behind the line of scrimmage, or penalty and/or a turnover.

I’m using the full play by play chart from ESPN.com, and all play-by-play summaries can be accessed from this link here. Now if there was a timeout called and the website did not list it, then please correct me.

Finally, this is for offensive timeouts only, not accounting for any other instance. Positive points will be worth 1 point, neutral will be zero, negative -1 and a turnover will be -2. At the end, we’ll combine the total points out of the total possible positive outcome, and I’m expecting this number to be around 45-50%.

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